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ICBC Trading Strategies of Precious Metals and Commodities Market-March 9, 2017
 

I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices extended losses to a five-week low on Wednesday as the dollar gathered strength on the prospect of a U.S. interest rate hike. Investors are awaiting February non-farm payrolls data on Friday as a barometer of the U.S. economy after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said last week the central bank was poised to lift rates provided jobs and inflation data held up. These comments were seen as cementing plans for an increase at the Fed's March 14-15 meeting.
News front, hiring by U.S. private employers surged in February, suggesting that the economy remains on solid ground even as growth appears to have slowed further in the first quarter. The leading indicator fueled expectations for an upbeat non-farm payroll report. Non-farm payrolls will provide final confirmation of a rate hike next week and this could put more pressure on gold.
On technical front, gold is expected to fall below the key support of the 50-day and 100-day moving average. A downturn trajectory is expected to continue on sustaining short selling, with near-term support at $1,200.

Silver
Silver slipped 1.3 percent to $17.26 per ounce, after tapping its lowest since Jan. 31 at $17.19. But it managed to hold above the support of the 100-day moving average. The white metal is supposed to whipsaw around the 100-day moving average of $17.20. If that is breached, the next support could be found around $16.50.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil prices plunged 5 percent to their lowest levels this year on Wednesday as U.S. crude inventories surged much more than expected to a record high, stoking concerns a global glut could persist even as OPEC tries to prop up prices with output curbs. Crude stockpiles in the world's top energy consumer have been rising all year, and soared last week by 8.2 million barrels, more than quadruple the forecasts, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $50.28 per barrel, down $2.86, or 5.38 percent after falling to its lowest level since Dec. 15. Brent crude slumped to its lowest level since Dec. 8 at $52.93, before settling at $53.11, down $2.81 or 5.03 percent. Both contracts fell below their 100-day moving averages for the first time since late November. Key support levels for WTI that were being tested are the $51-$50 range heading to the end of the week.

Copper
Copper prices slipped on Wednesday to a one-month low on selling triggered by a higher dollar, lower imports of the metal by top consumer China and rising inventories. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was untraded at the close, but bid down 0.1 percent at $5,765 a tonne from an earlier session low at $5,755.50. Growing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike rates next week have boosted the U.S. currency, which when it rises makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, which could mean weaker demand. Copper imports to China totalled 340,000 tonnes in February, down 10.5 percent from January and down 19 percent from a year ago. Stocks of copper in LME approved warehouses at 288,525 tonnes have nearly doubled since last Thursday. Most of the deliveries were to warehouses in Asia, which traders say suggest the metal came from China. However, mine disruptions in Chile, Peru and Indonesia are supporting prices.

Soybean
U.S. soybean futures fell on Wednesday, pressured by expectations of a robust harvest in South America, traders said. But solid global demand capped losses. CBOT May soybeans closed above session lows on bargain hunting after crossing below the 200-day moving average. The USDA Weekly Export Sales Report due on Thursday is expected to show soybean export sales between 350,000 and 650,000 tonnes, compared with 427,739 tonnes last week. CBOT May soybeans were off 3-1/2 cents at $10.21-3/4 a bushel.


Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Li Nan


(2017-03-09)
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