I. Precious Metals
Gold
Gold prices fell on Monday, but still lingering around $1,200 an ounce. An expected U.S. interest rate hike continued to weigh on the precious metal, but political risks in Europe provided safe-haven support. With a rate increase by the Federal Reserve seen as a done deal, investor focus is shifting to what message the U.S. central bank will deliver when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday. Any divergence between Fed’s statement and market expectations would trigger violent changes in gold prices, which are likely to see a turning point after bearish news has been fully priced in. Investors of low risk appetite may cut their positions, while aggressive investors shall also set stop-loss and strictly follow investment rules.
On technical front, both the MACD and momentum index suggest strong downward momentum. Still remaining rangebound, gold could find support and resistance at $1,190 and 1,220 respectively.

Silver
Silver slid, but still lingering around $17 an ounce. Technically, the MACD and momentum index still pointed to a bearish tone. As silver usually swings more sharply then gold, investors shall be more cautious in silver investment before "risk events" this week. The support and resistance can be found at $16.60 and 17.40 respectively.

II. Commodities
Crude Oil
Oil tumbled on Tuesday, pressured by concerns over a supply glut that have now erased nearly all gains since OPEC announced output cuts in November. OPEC's monthly report said oil stocks in industrialised nations rose in January to 278 million barrels above the five-year average, with U.S. shale and other non-OPEC supply gaining. A surprise output jump from its biggest member, Saudi Arabia, further pressured prices. Technically, still within oversold range, both U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude and Brent were under mounting downward pressure.

Copper
Copper prices climbed on Tuesday as funds bought on growing expectations of stronger demand from top consumer China, but a higher dollar ahead of Wednesday's decision on U.S. interest rates by the Federal Reserve capped gains. The benchmark copper contract on the London Metal Exchange ended up 0.4 percent at $5,820 a tonne, nearly 3 percent above the two-month low at $5,652 hit last week.

Soybean
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures declined on Tuesday for a seventh straight session, dropping below $10 a bushel as hefty South American harvests threatened U.S. soy export prospects, traders said. CBOT May soybeans settled down 6-3/4 cents at $9.99-1/4 a bushel after dipping to $9.92, the contract's lowest since mid-November. CBOT May soymeal tracked soybean futures, down $3.7 to $327.2 a tonne. May soyoil closed 0.18 cents higher to 32.3 cents per lb, supported by soyoil/soymeal swap trade and stronger Malaysia palm oil.

Dealing Room, ICBC Beijing Branch
Yang Hui