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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-March 14, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. The British government won final approval from parliament on Monday for legislation giving Prime Minister Theresa May the power to trigger the country's exit from the European Union. After members of the lower house of parliament voted earlier on Monday to throw out changes to the bill made by the upper house in recent weeks, the upper house also agreed to pass the legislation unamended.

2. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will be "pushing hard" to advance U.S. interests in his debut meeting with Group of 20 counterparts this week, including reaffirming commitments to avoid competitive currency devaluations, a senior Treasury official said on Monday. Mnuchin, who will attend a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the G20 major economies on Friday and Saturday in Germany, also will press countries to help strengthen global growth, the official told reporters.

3. The economic policies of U.S. President Donald Trump could hurt global trade and could speed up an increase in U.S. interest rates, European Central Bank policy maker Ignazio Visco said on Monday. "Given the current situation of the U.S. economy, which is close to full employment, strong fiscal expansion risks having a pro-cyclical impact," Visco said. "In such a case, the process of normalizing monetary conditions undertaken by the Federal Reserve could be less gradual," said Visco.

4. Japan's core machinery orders unexpectedly fell in January from the previous month and dipped the most in five months, adding to worries about whether recent signs of economic recovery will be sustainable. Core machinery orders fell 3.2 percent in January, sharply undershooting the economists' median estimate of a 0.5 percent increase, Cabinet Office data showed on Monday. Compared with a year earlier, core orders fell 8.2 percent in January, larger than the analyst estimate for a 3.3 percent decrease.

5. Intel Corp agreed to buy Israeli autonomous vehicle technology firm Mobileye for $15.3 billion on Monday in a deal that could thrust the U.S. chipmaker into direct competition with rivals Nvidia Corp and Qualcomm Inc to develop driverless systems for global automakers. The pricey acquisition of Mobileye could propel the world's largest computer chipmaker into the front ranks of automotive suppliers at a time when Intel has been reaching for market beyond its core computer semiconductor business. It also promises to escalate the arms race among the world's carmakers and suppliers to acquire autonomous vehicle technology, and could fuel already-overheated valuations of self-driving start-ups. Mobileye's shares rose 28.2 percent to close at $60.62, while Intel's shares were down 2.1 percent.

6. Volkswagen AG pleaded guilty on Friday to fraud, obstruction of justice and falsifying statements as part of a $4.3 billion settlement reached with the U.S. Justice Department in January over the automaker's diesel emissions scandal. It was the first time the company has pleaded guilty to criminal conduct in any court in the world, a company spokesman said.

Domestic News
7. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has pledged in the government report to make the country's smoggy skies blue again and "work faster" to address the issue of low cost violating the law and difficulties in law enforcement. 

8. China's macroeconomy stabilized in the beginning of 2017, Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said. Industrial output in January and February grew more than 6 percent, and the services sector expanded over 8 percent, while the unemployment in 31 big cities was around 5 percent in February, he said.

9.China's new commerce minister Zhong Shan said the government is confident to stabilize China's import and export despite there are a lot of uncertainties in China's foreign trade. China's foreign investment will not be affected by a dropping foreign reserve, and it's inaccurate to say China would no longer encourage foreign investment, he said.

10.The PBOC has to implement a stable and neutral monetary policy to further the process of deleveraging, and Chinese monetary policy will remain balance, the head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Pan Gongsheng said. But China still needs to stop domestic leverage from continuing to increase, despite of the fact that China's leverage level is not high compared to other countries in the world, he said.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar was steady on Monday, recovering after Friday's losses despite a robust U.S. jobs report, as investors looked to this week's Federal Reserve's policy meeting in which it is expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point. Sterling, which has been one of the worst performers against the dollar the last two weeks, rose half a percent to $1.2231 after Scotland demanded the right to hold a new referendum on independence. In afternoon trading, the dollar was slightly stronger against a basket of currencies at 101.33 and was marginally up against the euro. The single European currency was last at $1.0658, down 0.1 percent. Against the yen, the dollar was little changed at 114.77 yen.

2. Home Market
China's yuan pared early gains against the dollar on Monday, with midpoint rate surging 135 bps. Big banks continued to injected dollar liquidity to meet mounting demand for forex, which is expected to remain steady during the Two Sessions. Yuan is likely to fall slightly after the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday.

Precious Metals
Gold prices were little changed on Monday as the prospect of imminent interest rate rises kept them near the five-week lows touched last week, while elections in Europe created uncertainty and fueled investor buying. Spot gold was last at $1,203.55 an ounce. That compares with $1,194.55 last Friday, its lowest level since Jan. 31. U.S. gold futures settled up 0.1 percent at $1,203.10.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices settled a few cents lower on Monday, retracing much of an early retreat to three-month lows in a steep slide that began last week as investors wondered whether swelling U.S. crude supplies would hinder OPEC's efforts to restrict output and reduce a global glut. Brent crude futures settled down 2 cents at $51.35 a barrel. The session low was $50.85, the lowest since Nov. 30. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down 9 cents at $48.40 a barrel.

2.Base Metals
The price of copper rose 1 percent on Monday to its highest level in over two weeks, buoyed mostly by supply disruptions after workers at Peru's top copper miner downed tools indefinitely late last week. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed 1.1 percent higher at $5,796 a tonne. Zinc jumped 1.6 percent to $2,757 a tonne, its highest level in a week. Nickel climbed 2.7 percent, its biggest daily jump in nearly a month, to $10,160 a tonne.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. bonds
U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Monday in anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase on Wednesday, nervousness that the central bank could indicate a more aggressive pace of future rate hikes, and new corporate bond supply. Prices for benchmark 10-year Treasuries were last down 9/32 to yield 2.615 percent, from a yield of 2.582 percent late on Friday. U.S. 30-year Treasuries prices were down 18/32 to yield 3.201 percent, inching just above Friday's session high to mark a roughly three-month peak in yield. Two-year yields, which are considered the most vulnerable to Fed policy, were last up about two basis points from late Friday at 1.376 percent.

2. Chinese bonds
China's interbank money rates remained balance with limited impact from the 13th-day net repo in the open market. Short-term liquidity steadied, but concern over end-quarter MPA lingered. Cross-month fund rates remained at highs.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
U.S. stocks ended little changed in light volume on Monday, with traders eyeing a Federal Reserve meeting expected to result in an interest rate increase later this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 21.5 points, or 0.1 percent, to 20,881.48, the S&P 500 gained 0.87 point, or 0.04 percent, to 2,373.47 and the Nasdaq Composite added 14.06 points, or 0.24 percent, to 5,875.78.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks started the week on an upbeat note, with an index tracking mainland companies posting its biggest gain in nearly four months after top Chinese officials signalled confidence in China's economic health. The Hang Seng index registered its biggest one-day rise since Feb. 15, rising 1.1 percent to 23,829.67. The China Enterprises Index gained 1.9 percent, to 10,258.71 points, its best day since Nov. 22.

3. China Equities
The Shanghai Composite Index rose at the largest pace in three weeks on Monday, led by small and medium caps in a choppy trade. Uncertainty still looms as the Two Sessions will end this week, and the Federal Reserve is about to announce its decision on interest rates.


(2017-03-15)
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