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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-March 30, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. Prime Minister Theresa May formally began Britain's divorce from the European Union on Wednesday, declaring there was no turning back. In one of the most significant steps by a British leader since World War Two, May notified EU Council President Donald Tusk in a hand-delivered letter that Britain would quit the club it joined in 1973. The prime minister now has two years to negotiate the terms of the divorce before it comes into effect in late March 2019.

2. Taken aback when markets started to price in an interest rate hike early next year, policymakers are keen to reassure investors that their easy-money policy is far from ending, suggesting reluctance change message before June, six sources in and close to the Governing Council indicated. One ECB source said the bank has been overinterpreted by markets at its March 9 meeting.

3. One of the Federal Reserve's most consistent supporters of low interest rates on Wednesday said he is with the majority of his colleagues in supporting further rate hikes this year, given progress on the U.S. central bank's goals of full employment and stable inflation. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said, the U.S. Federal Reserve should raise interest rates three more times this year due to the strength of the economy. The Boston Fed chief added that it seems likely the Fed will reach its goals on full employment and inflation by the end of 2017.

4. The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, surged 5.5 percent to 112.3. That was the highest reading since April and the second best showing since May 2006. The report on Wednesday from the NAR suggested higher home prices and mortgage rates were having little impact on the housing market for now, underscoring the economy's resilience despite an apparent slowdown in growth in the first quarter.

5. Japanese retail sales were effectively flat in February as consumers cut back on food and durable goods after employers offered the lowest spring wage increases in four years. Retail sales rose 0.1 percent in February from a year ago, well below the median estimate for a 0.5 percent annual increase, and much less than year-on-year growth of 1.0 percent in January.

6. Bank of Thailand (BOT) has left its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.50 percent as expected. Thailand's central bank raised its economic growth forecast for this year to 3.4 percent from 3.2 percent, and upgraded its projection for exports. The BOT now expects exports to rise 2.2 percent in 2017. Three months ago, it forecast no growth.

Domestic News
7. Beijing said the local municipal government aims to ease prominent problems like “urban diseases”, optimize the capital's core functions, and make Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development take initial shape by 2030. The permanent resident population will be stabilized at about 23 million in Beijing by and after 2020.

8. A Chinese commerce official on Wednesday said improper trade remedy measures  in the ongoing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation concerning Chinese aluminum foil will hurt the interests of Chinese aluminum foil exporters and dent the competitiveness of U.S. downstream sectors, impacting employment and consumer interests, adding that it would lead to a no-win situation.

9. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is expected to stay at 51.6 in March, the same as in February, according to a median forecast of 31 economists in a Reuters poll. Activity in China's vast manufacturing sector likely grew in March as a surprise rebound in the property market added to a construction boom, boosting sales of building materials from steel, coal to cement.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The dollar rose to its highest in more than a week against a basket of currencies on Wednesday on outlooks for U.S. and European interest rates and as investors saw the selloff that followed U.S. President Donald Trump's healthcare setback as overdone. European Central Bank policymakers were wary of changing their policy message after tweaks this month upset investors and raised chances of a surge in borrowing costs. The euro fell to $1.0741 following the report, its lowest since March 21. Adding to pressure on European currencies, Britain invoked Article 50 on Wednesday, officially beginning its exit from the European Union. Sterling was down 0.25 percent at $1.2416.

2. Home Market
China's yuan fell against the dollar on Wednesday as the midpoint rates slipping to a one-week low. The dollar index rallied across the board, lifting demand for forex. Big banks continued to provided liquidity in dollar, pushing up trading volume. Bargain hunting is expected to prevail in the market unless the dollar index extends gains and yuan's losses were capped.

Precious Metals
Gold edged up on Wednesday, hovering below Monday's one-month high as uncertainty about Brexit talks, French elections and U.S. President Donald Trump's economic policies boosted safe-haven buying and offset a firmer dollar. Spot gold steadied at $1,251.95 an ounce. U.S. gold futures settled down 0.2 percent at $1,253.70.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Wednesday as U.S. crude inventories grew less than expected, supply disruptions continued in Libya and the OPEC-led output cut by producing countries looked likely to be extended. Brent crude futures settled $1.09, or 2.1 percent, higher at $52.42 a barrel after hitting a session high of $52.46, the highest since March 16. U.S. crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures ended up $1.14 cents, or 2.4 percent, at $49.51 a barrel after peaking on the data at $49.54, also the highest since March 16. U.S. gasoline futures surged as much as 2.4 percent to the highest in three weeks.

2.Base Metals
Aluminium hit its highest level in nearly two years on Wednesday, supported by optimism that China would carry out plans to cut supply and by a rebound in the oil price. Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) climbed 0.8 percent to close at $1,960 a tonne, its strongest since May 2015. Copper ended up 0.6 percent to $5,907 per tonne. Zinc was at a one-week high, up 1.2 percent to $2,858.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. bonds
U.S. Treasury debt yields slid on Wednesday in generally light trading, pressured by lingering uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's economic policy. Treasury prices also got a lift from a stronger-than-expected auction of $28 billion of the seven-year notes. Benchmark 10-year notes were up 7/32 in price to yield 2.383 percent. U.S. 30-year bond prices rose 14/32 , yielding 2.989 percent. U.S. two-year yields were at 1.273 percent , compared with 1.298 percent late on Tuesday. The yield gap between shorter-dated and longer-dated Treasuries has been on a flattening trend over the last two weeks. But on Wednesday, the spread between the two-year and 10-year steepened a little bit to 110.6 basis points, from 111.20 basis points late on Tuesday.

2. Chinese bonds
China's interbank money rates rose slightly in the morning session, followed by the IRS, while the CFFE bonds remained weak. The bond market subdued in quiet fundamentals despite that overnight U.S. Treasury yields rebounded.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
The benchmark S&P 500 eked out a gain on Wednesday as strength in the energy and consumer sectors offset declines in financial shares and investors began looking ahead to first-quarter earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 42.18 points, or 0.2 percent, to 20,659.32, the S&P 500 gained 2.56 points, or 0.11 percent, to 2,361.13 and the Nasdaq Composite added 22.41 points, or 0.38 percent, to 5,897.55.

2. Hong Kong Equities
Hong Kong stocks pared early gains to end slightly higher on Wednesday, as weakness in property shares offset buying in shipping firms and index heavyweight Tencent. The Hang Seng index rose 0.2 percent to 24,392.05 points, while the China Enterprises Index gained 0.1 percent to 10,437.51.

3. China Equities
China stocks closed in the negative territory for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. Lifted by ports and shipping sector, major indexes steadied after breaching below the 30-day moving average. Lack of gunpowder in arsenal, the Shanghai Composite Index can hardly cross over the technical resistance at $3,300. Quarter-end tightening also curbed liquidity in near term.


(2017-03-30)
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