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ICBC Financial Market Daily Review-April 17, 2017
 

I. Yesterday's News
International News
1. North Korea denounced the United States on Friday for bringing "huge nuclear strategic assets" to the Korean peninsula as a U.S. aircraft carrier group headed for the region amid concerns the North may conduct a sixth nuclear weapon test. The United States has warned that its policy of "strategic patience" is over. China, North Korea's sole major ally and neighbour, which nevertheless opposes its weapons programme, has called for talks leading to a peaceful resolution and the denuclearisation of the peninsula. In another part of the world, the U.S. military said on Thursday that it dropped "the mother of all bombs," the largest non-nuclear device it has ever unleashed in combat, on a network of caves and tunnels used by Islamic State in eastern Afghanistan. "I think that the 'mother of all bombs' was intended to show the power of U.S. forces to North Korea," said Kaneo Ogino, director at foreign exchange research firm Global-info Co in Tokyo.

2. The Bank of Japan is expected to offer a more upbeat view of the economy at this month's rate review than it did last month, people familiar with the matter said, as robust exports and factory output support recovery in the world's third-largest economy. But the central bank will stress its resolve to maintain its massive monetary stimulus, as the export-driven recovery has yet to boost private consumption and inflation, the sources told Reuters. "Exports and output are gathering momentum," another source said, adding that a recent slew of positive data has heightened the chance the BOJ will upgrade its economic view.

3. The United States is pushing for trade to be a key issue in top-level economic talks with Japan, a person involved in the talks told Reuters on Thursday, an unwelcome development for Tokyo, which is seeking to fend off U.S. pressure to reduce the bilateral trade imbalance. Japan wants to keep the bilateral dialogue, to be led by Vice President Mike Pence and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso and starting next Tuesday, focused on economic policy, energy, infrastructure investment and the rules of trade.

4. Apple Inc is considering teaming up with its supplier Foxconn to bid for Toshiba Corp's semiconductor business, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported on Friday - the latest twist in the sale of the world's second-biggest flash memory chipmaker. The U.S. technology giant is considering investing at least several billion dollars to take a stake of more than 20 percent as part of a plan that would have Toshiba keep a partial holding so the business remains under U.S. and Japanese control, NHK reported, citing unidentified sources. Apple was not immediately available to comment. Taiwan's Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, declined to comment. Taiwan's Foxconn has asked for SoftBank Group's cooperation in its bid for Toshiba Corp's prized memory chip unit, the Nikkei business daily reported. Foxconn may also team up with Apple Inc for the bid, the report said.

5.The latest voter surveys showed the possibility of a second round that pits the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen against hard-left challenger Jean-Luc Melenchon, with the April 23 first round of the French presidential election voting a week away. The final twist could have a significant impact on world economy. Both Melenchon and Le Pen want to hold a referendum on France's membership in the European Union as well as quit the euro, raising concerns over their stability, even their very existence.

Domestic News
6. China's banks made 1.02 trillion yuan in new loans in March, data showed by the People's Bank of China, well below the 1.25 trillion yuan that analysts had predicted in a Reuters poll. Broad M2 money supply (M2) in March grew 10.6 percent from a year earlier, the slowest monthly growth since July and missing forecasts for an 11.1 percent expansion. At the end of last month, the total amount of outstanding yuan-denominated loans stood at 110.83 trillion yuan, up 12.4 percent compared with the previous year. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected outstanding loans to rise by 12.7 percent. China's total social financing (TSF) rocketed to 2.12 trillion yuan in March, 1.03 trillion yuan higher than February.

7. Broad M2 money supply (M2) growth slowed down in the first quarter due to higher base, contracting capital investment by commercial banks' on-balance sheet funds, dropping bond investment by commercial banks, and controlled loan growth,   said Ruan Jianhong, head of the Statistics and Analysis Department at the People's Bank of China.

8. Total funds outstanding for foreign exchange fell by 54.691 billion yuan to 21.62095 trillion yuan by the end of March, China's central bank said.

9.President Donald Trump said ahead of the Treasury Department's semi-annual report on currency practices of major trading partners that his administration will not label China a currency manipulator, easing concerns over a trade war with China. But that does not mean that Beijing could rest easy as Washington already opened a new battlefront on the huge trade deficit.

10. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Friday tension over North Korea had to be stopped from reaching an "irreversible and unmanageable stage" amid fears the North may conduct a sixth nuclear weapons test regardless of UN sanction and U.S. harsh warning. The United States has warned that a policy of "strategic patience" is over.

11. Official data showed China's fiscal revenue rose 14.1 percent year on year to 4.4366 trillion yuan in the first quarter on upbeat signs of economic recovery, much higher producer price index (PPI) and some commodity prices. But the growth may slow down on tax reduction. In the first three months, general public budget expenditure surged 21 percent year on year to 4.5917 trillion yuan.

12. China is expected to reduce taxes by 680 billion yuan by April 30, after comprehensively replacing business tax with value added tax (VAT) for one year, said Wang Jun, head of the country's State Administration of Taxation. Wang said that China has achieved a total tax reduction of 1.2 trillion yuan between January 2012, when the country began its pilot VAT reform, and February 2017.

13. A far-north New Zealand region has agreed to help China Railway Group invest in infrastructure in the depressed area, a regional council head told Reuters, as China looks to further advance its "One Belt, One Road" initiative.

II. Market Overview
FX
1. Global Market
The forex market was closed in Europe and U.S.. The dollar fell against the yen, on track for a weekly decline as geopolitical tensions in the Korean peninsula buoyed the yen perceived as a safe-haven. U.S. President Donald Trump said the Korea issue will be resolved, while China called for caution amid rising fears the North may conduct a sixth nuclear weapon. Trading was thin due to the Easter holidays.

2. Home Market
China's yuan fell along with lower midpoint rates as the dollar index rebounded. The midpoint rates were set with clear intention of stabilizing forext rates. Range-bound is expected to extend as more market participants expect a two-way fluctuation and bargain-hunting would tighten trading range.

Precious Metals
Gold prices hit a five-month high, on track to post the largest weekly gains since last April, as the dollar weakened with investors taking refuge in safe-haven assets in the wake of rising geopolitical tensions over the Middle East and North Korea. Trading was thin due to public holidays. U.S. gold futures were up 0.9 percent at $1,288.5.

Commodities
1.Crude Oil
Oil market was closed for public holidays.

2.Base Metals
The market was closed for public holidays.

U.S. Treasuries
1. U.S. bonds
The market was closed for public holidays.

2. Chinese bonds
China's interbank money rates rose in the first business session, while government bond futures gaped down. Cash bond yields were pushed up on tightening monitoring, better fundamentals, and downbeat expectations on liquidity.

Stock Market
1. U.S. Equities
Wall Street was closed for public holidays.

2. Hong Kong Equities
The market was closed for public holidays.

3. China Equities
China's stocks closed down in a choppy trade, losing the 10-day and 20-day moving average successively. The leading stocks of Xiong'an New Area theme were suspended for self-inspection, triggering profit-taking. The Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao sector were also sold off. More correction is expected on lack of hot themes and cautious sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index edged down 0.91 percent at 3,246.07. The benchmark index fell 1.23 percent for the week.


(2017-04-17)
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